Sri Lanka is the youngest Test playing nation to win a World Cup. Ever since debuting in ODIs in the 1975 World Cup, Sri Lanka has played 782 matches, winning 368 of them and losing 374. Throughout their existence in ODI cricket, Sri Lanka has produced some of the most exhilarating stroke makers in world cricket. Let it be the pomposity of Duleep Mendis or the conflation stoic doggedness and steely combativeness of Angelo Mathews, Sri Lanka has never been short of match winners.
So this automatically leads one to ask the question who the greatest match winner for Sri Lanka in ODIs is. Is it the hero of the 1996 World Cup final, the hawk-eyed Aravinda de Silva? Or the Black Prince- Duleep Mendis? Could it be the silkiest stroker, Mahela? Or is it the marauder, Sanath Jayasuriya? Let’s find out.
Who is a match winner?
Before trying to find the answer to our question, it’s imperative that we define who a match winner is. The definition of a match winner could vary from people to people and hence so would the eventual answer to our problem. The average of a batsman in wins alone cannot be considered a parameter to judge his match winning ability. If a batsman is going to score well both in wins and defeats, then that makes him a consistent batsman- whose performance doesn’t affect the result of a match much.
In my opinion, a match winner is a player who performs well during wins and not so well during defeats, for good performances from a player in wins and a lack thereof in defeats suggest that his team’s fortunes have hung on his performances.
How to find the greatest match winner?
So, a simple way to find the greatest match winner is to find the difference between a batsman’s average in wins and defeats. Even though we could get the list of batsmen who have had a telling impact on wins using this method, batsmen who fed off other batsmen’s performance would also find a way into this list. For instance, if a batsman is going to score well when everyone around him scores well and is going to falter when everyone else fails, he is going to feature in this list.
A simple way to eliminate this problem is to find the average difference between the runs he scored and the average runs scored by his teammates in both wins and defeats and find the difference between both the values. So if a batsman is going to score more when everyone in his team scores more, the difference between his score and the average score would either be small or negative whereas the difference will be high if he is going to score high when everyone else fails.
Strike rates, too, play a key role in ODIs and it will not be ideal to judge a batsman’s performance by the number of runs he scored alone. So, the number of runs a batsman scored in an innings could be multiplied by the runs per ball he scored. If a batsman is going to score more than run a ball, the value obtained would be more than the runs he scored and vice versa if the strike rate is going to be less than run a ball.
So instead of finding the average difference between the runs he scored and the average runs scored by his teammates in both wins and defeats and finding the difference between both the values, we shall find the average difference between the product of the runs a batsman scored and the strike rate per ball of his and the average product of his teammates’ runs and their strike rate per ball in both wins and defeats and the difference between both the values. So the batsman with the highest positive difference could be considered as the greatest match winner.
The methodology
- The innings by innings list for individual batsmen in wins for Sri Lanka was obtained. (The list includes each batsman’s innings in a particular match).
- Then the total runs scored by the rest of the team in a match was found. Extra runs were excluded since they don’t necessarily reflect the overall batting performance of the team.
- The total runs scored by the rest of the team was divided by the number of batsmen dismissed excluding the batman of interest and the average was found.
- The strike rate of the rest of the team per ball in a match was found.
- The runs scored by each batsman was multiplied by the strike rate of him per ball. This was named Player Index for ease of reference.
- The average runs scored by the rest of the team was multiplied by the strike rate of the rest of the team in a match and was named Team Index.
- The difference between the Player Index and the Team Index was found for each batsman in a match and was named Impact in Wins.
- The average Impact in Wins was found for each batsman (The sum of the Impact of Wins for a batsman in the matches won was divided by the number of completed innings).
- The above steps were repeated for batsmen in defeats and the average Impact in Defeats was obtained for each batsman.
- The difference between the average Impact in Wins and the average Impact in Defeats was found for each batsman and named Match Winning Index.
- The batsman with the highest positive Match Winning Index was deemed the greatest match winner.
*When no batsman was dismissed in an innings, the runs scored by the other batsman times his strike rate per ball was considered the Team Index.
When the only batsman dismissed in the innings was the batsman of interest, the product of the average runs scored by the rest of the batsman and their strike rate per ball was considered the Team Index.
The results
In wins, Sanath Jayasuriya’s innings have the four highest Player Indexes with Sangakkara occupying the fifth spot. Sanath’s innings of 134 run off 65 balls versus Pakistan in Singapore in 1996 has the highest Player Index in wins for Sri Lanka. It is remarkable that Sanath features six times in the list of top ten highest Player Indexes in wins.
| Player | Runs | SR | Player Index | Match |
| ST Jayasuriya | 134 | 206.15 | 276.241 | Sri Lanka vs. Pakistan, Singapore, 1996
|
| ST Jayasuriya | 157 | 150.96 | 237.0072 | Sri Lanka vs. Netherlands, Amstelveen, 2006
|
| ST Jayasuriya | 152 | 153.53 | 233.3656 | Sri Lanka vs. England, Headingley, 2006
|
| ST Jayasuriya | 189 | 117.39 | 221.8671 | Sri Lanka vs. India, Sharjah, 2000
|
| KC Sangakkara | 169 | 123.35 | 208.4615 | Sri Lanka vs. South Africa, Colombo, 2013
|
The list of highest Impact in Wins was almost identical to that of highest Player Indexes with Sanath’s innings occupying the top four spots.
| Player | Runs | SR | Player Index | Team Index | Impact in Wins | Start Date |
| ST Jayasuriya | 134 | 206.15 | 276.241 | 20.49180328 | 255.7491967 | 4/2/1996 |
| ST Jayasuriya | 189 | 117.39 | 221.8671 | 13.35172414 | 208.5153759 | 10/29/2000 |
| ST Jayasuriya | 157 | 150.96 | 237.0072 | 39.69 | 197.3172 | 7/4/2006 |
| ST Jayasuriya | 151 | 125.83 | 190.0033 | 6.653543307 | 183.3497567 | 5/17/1997 |
| KC Sangakkara | 169 | 123.35 | 208.4615 | 25.36737805 | 183.094122 | 7/20/2013 |
In defeats, Dilshan’s 160 against India in 2009 occupies the first place in the list of highest Player Indexes.
| Player | Runs | SR | Player Index | Start Date |
| TM Dilshan | 160 | 129.03 | 206.448 | 12/15/2009 |
| ST Jayasuriya | 76 | 271.42 | 206.2792 | 4/7/1996 |
| KC Sangakkara | 90 | 209.3 | 188.37 | 12/15/2009 |
| AD Mathews | 139 | 119.82 | 166.5498 | 11/16/2014 |
| TM Dilshan | 160 | 96.96 | 155.136 | 2/28/2012 |
Sanath Jayasuriya’s innings of 76 off 28 balls against Pakistan in 1996 has the highest Impact in Defeats for a Sri Lankan batsman.
| Player | Runs | SR | Team Avg | Team SR | Team Index | Impact in Defeats | Start Date |
| ST Jayasuriya | 76 | 271.42 | 9 | 46.82081 | 4.213873 | 202.0653 | 4/7/1996 |
| TM Dilshan | 160 | 129.03 | 32.85714 | 129.9435 | 42.69572 | 163.7523 | 12/15/2009 |
| AD Mathews | 139 | 119.82 | 16.75 | 72.82609 | 12.19837 | 154.3514 | 11/16/2014 |
| KC Sangakkara | 90 | 209.3 | 42.85714 | 116.2791 | 49.83389 | 138.5361 | 12/15/2009 |
| ST Jayasuriya | 112 | 128.73 | 16.83333 | 93.51852 | 15.74228 | 128.4353 | 7/2/2002 |
Only three batsmen have a positive average Impact in Wins among batsmen who have featured in at least 50 wins as the rest of the batsmen have, on average, fared worse than their teammates in wins. The World Cup-winning captain Arjuna Ranatunga has the highest average Impact in Wins.
| Player | Avg Impact in Wins |
| A Ranatunga | 7.948186 |
| ST Jayasuriya | 5.635613 |
| PA de Silva | 4.613525 |
| TM Dilshan | -3.1615 |
| DPMD Jayawardene | -3.93408 |
| KC Sangakkara | -4.53163 |
| AD Mathews | -8.53033 |
It should be noted that Arjuna Ranatunga has remained not out in 33 of the 99 wins, which has aggravated his Impact in Wins. Only Angelo Mathews, who has remained not out in 31 of 71 wins, has a higher not-out percentage in wins.
Among batsmen, who have faced at least 50 defeats, Sangakkara reigns supreme having an average Impact in Defeats of 12.7. Quite contrary to average in Impact in Wins, 14 batsmen boast of a positive average Impact in Defeats.
| Player | Avg Impact in Defeats |
| KC Sangakkara | 12.69980083 |
| PA de Silva | 8.18806332 |
| AD Mathews | 7.924848162 |
| TM Dilshan | 6.821070717 |
| A Ranatunga | 6.800054447 |
| ST Jayasuriya | 5.135528943 |
Most batsmen seem to have fared better in defeats than in wins as only two Sri Lankan batsmen have a better performance in wins.
| Player | Avg Impact in Wins | Avg Impact in Defeats | Match Winning Index |
| A Ranatunga | 7.948186 | 6.800054447 | 1.148132 |
| ST Jayasuriya | 5.635613 | 5.135528943 | 0.500084 |
| PA de Silva | 4.613525 | 8.18806332 | -3.57454 |
| DPMD Jayawardene | -3.93408 | 2.832033691 | -6.76611 |
| MS Atapattu | -8.73347 | 0.688257739 | -9.42173 |
| TM Dilshan | -3.1615 | 6.821070717 | -9.98257 |
| UDU Chandana | -13.2 | -2.810346743 | -10.3896 |
| RS Kaluwitharana | -15.1821 | -0.289205795 | -14.8929 |
| WPUJC Vaas | -25.3356 | -10.18151509 | -15.1541 |
| RS Mahanama | -15.2944 | 0.170305995 | -15.4647 |
| AD Mathews | -8.53033 | 7.924848162 | -16.4552 |
| KC Sangakkara | -4.53163 | 12.69980083 | -17.2314 |
| RP Arnold | -14.0662 | 4.784296761 | -18.8505 |
| M Muralitharan | -33.5205 | -14.09710578 | -19.4234 |
| WU Tharanga | -19.1857 | 1.626067115 | -20.8117 |
| AP Gurusinha | -17.6538 | 3.409164696 | -21.063 |
| HP Tillakaratne | -22.9279 | 2.239585256 | -25.1674 |
Arjuna Ranatunga emerges as Sri Lanka’s greatest ever match winner according to this method with a Match Winning Index of 1.15, followed by Sanath Jayasuriya.
The portly left-hander has had a greater impact in wins than defeats and Sanath’s impact has been almost consistent in both wins and defeats. Surprisingly, Upul Tharanga, Asanka Gurusinha, and Hashan Tillakaratne have a lower Match Winning Index than Muttiah Muralitharan. All three of these batsmen have a very poor average Impact in Wins and possessing a positive average Impact in Defeats means that their impact in wins relative to defeats become worse. Murali’s impact in wins, in contrast, is only 19.4234 less than that in defeats.
One disadvantage of finding the difference between the average Impact in Wins and the average Impact in Defeats is that a team’s poor bowling performance or the failure of the rest of the batting lineup could contribute to a team’s defeat, thus, turning a standout stellar performance of a batsman against his own self. This also leads to peculiar observations as in Sangakkara’s case, where a batsman performs exceptionally well in defeats and not so in wins.
If a higher Impact in Defeats could be interpreted as having done well in conditions and against oppositions under which and against whom the rest of the team has struggled, then this method could be considered highly unfair on batsmen. A good batsman playing for a very bad team will definitely suffer this fate. However, most of these batsmen with a great performance in defeats have done poorly in relation to their team in wins. Sangakkara, for instance, has an average Impact in Wins of -4.53, which leads to the question as to why a batsman who performs well under conditions and against oppositions that his team has found difficulties with, performs badly in wins.
One answer could be that the failure of batsmen who usually perform well have helped these batsmen have a better Impact in Defeats since Impact in Defeats is actually is a comparison between the player’s performance against that of his team. Whatsoever, Jayasuriya and Ranatunga have performed better than their teams in defeats and even better in wins, which is a not only a testament to their great batsmanship but also to their match-winning ability. The fact that Arjuna’s impact falls by 1.14 in defeats shows how great a champion he was for the Sri Lankan team.
Arjuna’s innings of 131 off 152 balls that came while successfully chasing a score of 227 is his greatest ever performance if you go by Impact in Wins. His 88 not out off 61 balls in the 1992 World Cup that helped Sri Lanka become the first team to chase down a score in excess of 300, and his 85 off 77 balls while chasing India’s 241 show that he was always a man for the crisis.
The findings are surprising since many would have expected either Sanath Jayasuriya or Aravinda de Silva to top the list. Arjuna Ranatunga, though a feisty batsman he was during his time, had his batting expertise masked by his adroit captaincy skills. This, however, is a testimony to the man’s leadership qualities. To have been the greatest match-winner of his country but to have people rather speak about his captaincy skills shows that the bellicose Sri Lankan was truly a giant figure in the history of Sri Lanka cricket.
